Childbearing postponement, its option value, and the biological clock

Having children is like investing in a risky project. Postponing birth delaying an irreversible investment. It has option value, which depends on its costs and benefits, particular the additional risks motherhood brings. We develop parsimonious theory of childbearing postponement along these lines. derive implications for asset accumulation, income, optimal age at first birth, childlessness. The structural parameters are estimated by matching predictions model to data from National Longitudinal Survey Youth NLSY79. uncertainty surrounding income growth shown increase with childbearing, this stronger more educated people. This effect alone can explain why childlessness rate both education. use simulate two hypothetical policies. Providing free medically assisted reproduction technology does not affect much, but lowers rate. Insuring mothers against risk powerful lowering birth.